$2 nlhe mtt-push or fold?

[NotFadeAway]

BB is sitting out, if that matter.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 2.2 Tournament, 300/600 Blinds 50 Ante (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (UTG) (t9699)
UTG+1 (t15407)
MP1 (t9368)
MP2 (t18233)
MP3 (t7321)
CO (t28544)
Button (t15620)
SB (t11579)
BB (t1495)

Hero's M: 7.18

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 10, A
Hero?

[holdemholmes]

With 15bb and the ante factoring in, I think I push here...to me it really is right on that line of not being positive what to do though.

[stooks99]

Very close, but I think it's a fold.  You are going to have to push this hand through 7 other players, and you're very unlikely to get called by A9 or KT.  I don't think a shove is really that bad, but you have enough chips to let the blinds pass through and start getting aggressive when folded to you.

[Martini]

Would help to know payouts, table action, etc. but absent that info I agree with stooks. I could see it go either way. The BB sitting out works to your advantage since you're not stealing someone's BB. But as stooks said, you have to push your bet through the rest of the table and survive a showdown with whatever calls you if they do.

Personally I'm more inclined to fold being UTG in favor of shoving from LP with potentially worse holdings.

[stooks99]

Personally I'm more inclined to fold being UTG in favor of shoving from LP with potentially worse holdings.

Bingo.

[pauld22]

I hate this spot and it's probably why I don't do better in MTTs.  I was slightly in favor of a shove but 100% understand folding POV.  With that I have a question for the sake of discussion/learning...

Right now our M might not be so hot but our stack represents a good portion of most of the rest of the players' stacks (making the argument for not shoving because we will only get called with a better hand and there are a lot of players left to act).  However, if we let the blinds go through us and fold 3 more hands our stack is down T1100 and represents a smaller portion of the stacks at the table (especially 2 or 3 others who will win the next few pots). 

So, does the risk of being called by a better hand outweigh the benefit of holding our water until later position?  If we shove and are not called we add ~13% to our stack vs. blinding/anteing off and potentially only winning that amount back when we shove late.

Thanks in advance....

[Martini]

I hate this spot and it's probably why I don't do better in MTTs.  I was slightly in favor of a shove but 100% understand folding POV.  With that I have a question for the sake of discussion/learning...

Right now our M might not be so hot but our stack represents a good portion of most of the rest of the players' stacks (making the argument for not shoving because we will only get called with a better hand and there are a lot of players left to act).  However, if we let the blinds go through us and fold 3 more hands our stack is down T1100 and represents a smaller portion of the stacks at the table (especially 2 or 3 others who will win the next few pots). 

So, does the risk of being called by a better hand outweigh the benefit of holding our water until later position?  If we shove and are not called we add ~13% to our stack vs. blinding/anteing off and potentially only winning that amount back when we shove late.

Thanks in advance....

ProPokerTools has a tourneylizer but it only has room for six seats. I can't find the link anymore but I think the odds of AT being the best hand at the table of 9 is like 2 out of 3. Now whether someone calls you with a better or worse hand is a different story but even figuring you're being called by JJ, QQ, KK, AA, and AK, you have that many hands times 8 (OK, 7 with the BB sitting out) players. I don't have the numbers for what the odds are there.

You raise a good point about the blinds hitting him but one interesting nuance is that when he is in the BB, the SB is an auto-fold.

I wonder how effective a raise to 1800 would be. How many hands would call or play back to a 3xBB bet compared to hands that would call a 16xBB shove? What I'm thinking is Hero can fold to any shove or fold to a bad Flop if called. And if he loses his bet then he can play very aggressively from the cutoff to get his blinds back. The upside is that the BB cannot call his raise and only the SB would not have to call 1800 cold. So bottom line, I think a raise would give almost all of the benefit of a shove without having to risk an entire stack.

[holdemholmes]

Martini, my only issue is with a 3x raise you're letting the weaker aces in for cheap (i guess it depends on the level, but im assuming if it's not that high up theyre going to call A9/A8..etc). What happens in an A flop...AJ/AQ isnt necessarily going to 3b you pre, so where are you then with an A on the flop?

[stooks99]

It's a pretty easy breakdown.  With 15 BB, we cannot raise/fold.  But, A10 is much too weak to try and push this many chips through the field.  You're likelihood of moving this hand through 7 people isn't high enough to shove based on the fact that the blinds are coming.  Simply put, there are much better spots.  I'd rather shove Q8s from the cutoff in a few hands if it was folded to me than put my money in now.

[Martini]

Martini, my only issue is with a 3x raise you're letting the weaker aces in for cheap (i guess it depends on the level, but im assuming if it's not that high up theyre going to call A9/A8..etc). What happens in an A flop...AJ/AQ isnt necessarily going to 3b you pre, so where are you then with an A on the flop?

I'd say best case scenario is you take down blinds/antes without a fight. I'm not really sure who would be calling though, I assume AK, AQ, and medium to high pairs are going to re-raise or shove in which case you saved yourself from getting your stack in bad. You aren't deep enough for someone to profitably set mine against you. If I hit top pair and or a solid draw/combo-draw then I'm going to get the rest of my chips in ASAP being OOP.

[Killingbird]

looks like a fold.

[NotFadeAway]

I certainly appreciate all the responses (in both this thread and the plo one.)
I thought a fold was probably best here, but I wasn't really that sure.  I thought it was an interesting spot and one that I didn't feel good about either way, so I thought it made a good thread.  Much thanks to everyone who posted here.

[Nerre]

Two of the other players have shorter stacks than Hero.
Hero (t9699)
MP1 (t9368)
MP3 (t7321)

So I don't really think the hand has to be pushed through 7 players, more likely 4 or 5 (the SB is quite shortstacked too and will probably not call if someone else calls, because he benefits from Hero being eliminated).

[FSL009]

Right now our M might not be so hot but our stack represents a good portion of most of the rest of the players' stacks (making the argument for not shoving because we will only get called with a better hand and there are a lot of players left to act).  However, if we let the blinds go through us and fold 3 more hands our stack is down T1100 and represents a smaller portion of the stacks at the table (especially 2 or 3 others who will win the next few pots). 

^^^^ this

I would shove that hand in that spot everytime no questions asked.   the blinds and Ante's are a significant increase to our stack not one of those stacks is calling an UTG raise without having AA, KK or maybe QQ it  just wont happen unless you have been all in ing loose for a while and got lucky (ie been caught being loose).

Assuming this is not the case your stack is significant to everyone on the table, no one is risking that many chips and your first to a pot with a decent hand and with a stack that is short enough to shove, and big enough to scare everyone away.

I dont mind a fold either just i wouldnt in that spot.   

Cant raise only cause you have no room in your stack to play so your shoving or folding.

[luckystraights]

Can we win the blinds in the next 2-3 orbits if we fold, if not I'm shoving... aka are the blinds very call happy when your in likley stealing spots.

Close eitherway probably, everyone snap shoving AJo?