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Author Topic: Need your help with strategy - quick!  (Read 3640 times)
Trident Cards
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« on: May 12, 2010 at 17:03 »

First, my apologies for getting back late to some of you. I've been traveling on business for five out of the last six weeks. But I need your help - quick.

I'm in the middle of negotiations that involve multiple competitors bidding for a project. It is analogous to a game of hold'em, with a twist. Suppose the potential client is the dealer. The different competitors are the players. The chips are your margin. You turn the river and find a joker (in this case a new business requirement that is expensive or risky). You don't have a lot of chips left. The other players, who have different stacks, are willing to keep playing. The value of the joker is unclear. How would you play? (Don't get technical - this is about strategy.)
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Wedge Rock
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« Reply #1 on: May 12, 2010 at 17:08 »

First, my apologies for getting back late to some of you. I've been traveling on business for five out of the last six weeks. But I need your help - quick.

I'm in the middle of negotiations that involve multiple competitors bidding for a project. It is analogous to a game of hold'em, with a twist. Suppose the potential client is the dealer. The different competitors are the players. The chips are your margin. You turn the river and find a joker (in this case a new business requirement that is expensive or risky). You don't have a lot of chips left. The other players, who have different stacks, are willing to keep playing. The value of the joker is unclear. How would you play? (Don't get technical - this is about strategy.)

I'm risk-adverse.  If I don't know the value of the joker, I assume it has the least value possible.  Better to lose out on a lucrative deal than to get involved with one and lose your shirt because of an unknown variable.

JMHO.
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Trident Cards
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« Reply #2 on: May 12, 2010 at 17:12 »

There is downside risk if you fold. What would you play if you had to play?
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Detroitdad
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« Reply #3 on: May 12, 2010 at 17:34 »

I'm a big pot guy................All In Baby!!!!!
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Eralis
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« Reply #4 on: May 12, 2010 at 18:00 »

If you are unsure, try checking it down, and if you lose, you lose the minimum.
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Trident Cards
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« Reply #5 on: May 12, 2010 at 18:21 »

Better tight, generally?
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Squiggly
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« Reply #6 on: May 12, 2010 at 18:24 »

I think in this case checking it down would mean losing the pot no matter what.

Risk/reward. I don't know if it can be fully described using poker. You bet big and lose in a game, you lose the game. You can always buy into the next game. Can't necessarily do that with your business.

I'd be tight, but I'm a nit anyway lol. It would sure be nice to know the value of the joker compared to the value of your stack.
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Martini
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« Reply #7 on: May 12, 2010 at 18:59 »

If the game is a tourney and I am short stacked then I'd take the chance on the Joker. But that's only because I do not feel that I'd be able to cash without a big stroke of luck.

If it's a cash game and I can reach back in my pocket to reload then I pass on the Joker because it costs me risk (and possibly money) for unknown return.
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djexacto
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« Reply #8 on: May 12, 2010 at 23:50 »

Shouldn't a joker just be ignored and a new river dealt?
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