Rush poker hand

[FSL009]

Another hand from that mate

FSL009 you may even want your stove mate to stove this for me…

Villain stats… vpip 33 pfr 9 but remember this is at ½ which I normally don’t play so my database of hands is small so stats not completely accurate and I am playing Rush.. this guy was 4 tabling rush…

Full Tilt Poker Game (6 max) - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 8:20:59 ET - 2010/02/10
Seat 1: Villian($529.65)
Seat 2: ($200)
Seat 3: ($201.65)
Seat 4: ($266.20)
Seat 5: Hero ($217.85)
Seat 6: ($550.60)
6 posts the small blind of $1
1 posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Qh Qd]
2 folds
3 raises to $7
4 calls $7
Hero raises to $31
6 folds
Villian has 15 seconds left to act
Villian raises to $74
3 has 15 seconds left to act
3 folds
4 folds
Hero calls $43
*** FLOP *** [Qs 3s Ks]
Villian has 15 seconds left to act
Villian bets $455.65, and is all in

What do I do now???

Lucky it would be good to get it stoved (does this cost you money or have you already paid for it?) dont do it if your paying for it per hand.

My thoughts on range in the spoiler but the standard 33 vpip range will do.

(Click to show/hide)

Range - all combinations of AA, JJ, KK, bottom set, Ax flushes down to 8 or 9, Ax os draws to the flush down to maybe 8, most combinations of made flushes down to 89, most draws to the J flush, and 10 flush that make sense for a 3 bet 6 max (ie suited connectors and gapped suited connectors.

or just use the 33 VPIP range, but i think he may be slightly tighter than that given it is a small sample size.

I think it will be a marginal fold. but it is rush and the game is developing into a very aggressive game and maybe the air 3 bet is alot wider than normal. unfortiunately stove wont tell us that.

[Jaxen]

If he's 4-tabling Rush, he probably only has a couple post-flop moves. All-in is one of them.

You're not going to fold set-over-set if you fear KK. And if he's made the flush you have 7 outs on the turn (and 10 on the river) to boat up.

Yanno what wouldn't surprise me here? 10-J. Guys are playing it like Aces these days. And 10s Js would be a helluva sweat for you.

If this hand was live, it'd be a perfect one for running it 3 times.

[TwoToGo-Grave]

The first hands that occur to me have got to be AsAx or AsKx.  That huge reraise pre sure looks like something that I've seen a lot with AK.  Nonetheless, what can you put him on?  Jaxen mentioned JTs and KK, but really, is there any other hand that makes sense that you're behind?  I would think that you have to call here and just rebuy if you're behind.

[Detroitdad]

The first hands that occur to me have got to be AsAx or AsKx.  That huge reraise pre sure looks like something that I've seen a lot with AK.  Nonetheless, what can you put him on?  Jaxen mentioned JTs and KK, but really, is there any other hand that makes sense that you're behind?  I would think that you have to call here and just rebuy if you're behind.

this..........

I don't even hesitate to call..........if I'm beat.........well, it wouldn't be the first time.

[Martini]

I don't like the flat call pre-flop simply because there are really so few good Flops for you. If an A or K comes out and he fires repping AK, can you call? If the three cards are all low and he fires repping AA or KK, can you call? If you assume a third raise is something as narrow as AA, KK, AK, QQ then you're in really bad shape against his range. And given that it's Rush Poker he doesn't need to waste his time trying to float someone with mediocre hands when he can just auto-dump his hand and move on to the next table which would lead me to believe that you are 50/50 *at best*. Personally I would just fold pre and find a better spot. I wouldn't mind someone shoving there either. But I don't care for a flat call at all.

[kimert]

Im liking a fold pre flop as Martini already has mentioned.
That aside, your not folding a set here are you?

[holdemholmes]

The first hands that occur to me have got to be AsAx or AsKx.  That huge reraise pre sure looks like something that I've seen a lot with AK.  Nonetheless, what can you put him on?  Jaxen mentioned JTs and KK, but really, is there any other hand that makes sense that you're behind?  I would think that you have to call here and just rebuy if you're behind.

My thoughts exactly...my first instinct when I read this post was AsAx.

[luckystraights]

I've never played rush. Without history this would be a fold pre I guess, though you don't really have history I suppose playing rush.

If your calling the 4b, to ship over a c-bet on non A/K flops, you are definitly commited on this flop imo, villain will ship AA and AK, plus any FD's, if he got cute with something random like KQs and flopped a flush then u have a redraw, so just ship it imo.

Your in v.good shape vs 2 flopped flushes, which will be the strongest part of villains light 4b range, assuming he has one, and AK+ KK+

Board: Ks Qs 3s
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    73.240%     71.62%    01.62%             14889          337.50   { QdQh }
Hand 1:    26.760%     25.14%    01.62%              5226          337.50   { KK+, AKs, AsQs, KsQs, AKo }

Your still ahead if u limit his AK range to AKs (fewer combo's)

Board: Ks Qs 3s
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    63.548%     61.84%    01.70%              7347          202.50   { QdQh }
Hand 1:    36.452%     34.75%    01.70%              4128          202.50   { KK+, AKs }

and your still ahead vs KK+

Board: Ks Qs 3s
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    53.199%     51.68%    01.52%              4605          135.00   { QdQh }
Hand 1:    46.801%     45.29%    01.52%              4035          135.00   { KK+ }

Even without dead money in the pot vs a relative unknown, especially vs one with fishy stats like this, there is no way you can fold, if u can't stack here u should most definitely be folding pre imo.

EDIT: I'm a full ring player, and not all that familiar with stack off ranges for 6m, though without history they shouldn't be too different, which is to say on the tight side.

Villains raise to $74 is a 4b, and that range will be much tighter then even his PFR range, his VPIP is only useful in determining he his a fish (by vpip / pfr gap), as his VPIP range is not his 4b'ing range.

The first hands that occur to me have got to be AsAx or AsKx.  That huge reraise pre sure looks like something that I've seen a lot with AK.

This is a pretty standard raise size, this is a 4b over a squeeze, and the stacks are ~210bb's deep.

[TwoToGo-Grave]

The first hands that occur to me have got to be AsAx or AsKx.  That huge reraise pre sure looks like something that I've seen a lot with AK.

This is a pretty standard raise size, this is a 4b over a squeeze, and the stacks are ~210bb's deep.

I had misread it right away and thought it went $7 to $74.  I realized it after I'd posted it but didn't bother editing.

[luckystraights]

Now that would be a big raise :p

[FSL009]

(Click to show/hide)

so he called all in - he justified that no one with the made straight would shove so he must be on a draw.

The guy had AK with the A for a flush draw.  the draw made it with the turn and the river was the last Q for the pot to come home to my mate...so fn sick that is so not right.....lol.   

anyway he got lucky, but again I miss judged the % that lucky came up with....

sorry if I called it a 3 bet as it was a 4 bet. 

[FSL009]

i agree i dont like the call, as your committed my comment to him was your 5bet shoving or yoru folding.

I personally figured it was a fold but the stats lucky has suggests it is a shove. result is in the spoiler above.

Lucky if you do it against the draw only the guy is way behind and if you do it against the made flush only your way behind although probably getting the right odds to put it in.

Man I just must get beaten up by these hands most of the time cause I am clearly more likley to fold them....

[luckystraights]

Man I just must get beaten up by these hands most of the time cause I am clearly more likley to fold them....

IMO, its the money that's involved, would you fold the flush in the other thread at 2nl, and would you fold here, I doubt it.

Don't think about "what if I lose, thats a lot of money", think about ranges and equity and act accordingly.

[FSL009]

I would say that i never think about the money cause i never get that deep or outside my roll.  but i just have the wrong idea of % in certain spots, need to get that stove and stove stuff a little more i guess so I know more about where I am at.

[luckystraights]

I would say that i never think about the money cause i never get that deep or outside my roll.  but i just have the wrong idea of % in certain spots, need to get that stove and stove stuff a little more i guess so I know more about where I am at.

Yes, but even knowing the %'s, you've still said its okay to fold as a 60/40 favorite, whereas you probably wouldn't fold being a 51/49 favorite at 2nl.