Hya, hoping someone could help me improve my play in similar situations as this:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2678337I expected to be a favorite on the flop, ran the numbers and its almost a dead heat, but I'm the slight underdog. I'm not used to semi-bluffing big pots in the cash games, I was half tempted to simply push this flop, but decided I'd be laying too big a price, especially with the Kc live. With that in mind I probably should have checked this turn, and folded to a strong enough bet.
I also overestimated my chances of winning, I figured I was in the 33% ball park on the turn, but unless I ran the simulation wrong I'm only 22% to win against just TP, looks like I need to do some revision on odds and such.
I was half tempted to push this river, but I decided against, I couldn't put my opponent on anything that they would call my flop re-raise and my turn bet with that I was ahead of, perhaps I should have thought about this on the turn and realized my Q may not have been an out.
Any thoughts?