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Author Topic: flopped set strategy on draw heavy boards  (Read 1277 times)
luckystraights
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« on: Jan 30, 2008 at 22:18 »

Hi, I've just been in a situation where I flopped a set on a very draw heavy board, in fact with 3 cards to a straight I could have been behind a made hand already. In this instance I played it fast which previously I felt was correct, though in this case paid my opponent off on the river.

I took down a few thoughts on the hand afterwards, which I've pasted bellow. Could anyone give me some feedback on how I played the hand, and on my hypothesis that playing this more cautious, especially on the flop, hoping to avoid a scare card on the turn would have been a better option, considering the limits I play.

I accept my pay off was horrible, no way I could be sure he didn't back door a flush here.

As usual thanks for any feedback xxx

================
The very first hand, I find 44 and call the BB. I was tempted to fold here, has I feel I’m often too willing to try and flop a set with small pairs early on in the sit-n-go’s, but being on the button I decide to call.

The flop is the worst I could ask for, giving me a set, whilst offering a flush draw and 3 cards to a straight. Its more likely my opponents are drawing here, then they have a made hand, and even if one of them did flop a straight I still have outs to beat them, so I make a pot sized raise hoping to take the pot down here. Instead I get two callers. The turn doesn’t bring any relief and piles on more pressure, I elect to lead out with a large bet, and get one call and one fold.

The river is a nightmare and completes four cards to a flush, to make things worse my opponent pushes all-in. I don’t rush to the decision, and eventual call to find he made a flush on the river.

Here’s what went from my mind at the time. If he’s got the flush I’m out of the tournament, obviously, and with four to a flush there was a reasonable chance he back doored a flush here, this was looking like a fold. However, I had put almost half my stack on the line here, and with a precedent in folding in these spots in that past, I would expect to not make the money without picking up a hand sooner then I would usually need with only $870 left if I fold. I was beginning to steel feel like folding was the best play, because if I did it a hand before the blinds reached 25/50, I’ll still have a shot at the money.

What changed my mind though was the action of the hand, I begun to feel like he was trying to pick up a got shot, and missed, and a push on the end was a defiant steel attempt. I’ve seen this pattern enough, and felt sure enough in my read that a call here was correct.

I’m disgusted with what he turned over, but he took the chips. On the flop, he was likely calling to try and pick up an ace or a king, instead he picks up a flush draw on the turn.

In hindsight, I could have handled this better :

Firstly, I had a strong hand, but on this board it was very vulnerable. In this instance I took a protective line and tried to make draws pay. At this limit though, and maybe higher too, I feel now this was a mistake on this board. If someone had flopped a straight and intended to slow play it I was drawing thin so should have kept the pot cheap. Also if someone was on a straight draw or especially a flush draw, very few of my opponents would fold, even if I pushed all my chips in. So playing it cheap allows me to avoid committing half of my stack into a situation where I could be beat on the turn, if the turn was blank I could then raise out any draws.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2024365
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FSL009
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« Reply #1 on: Jan 30, 2008 at 22:40 »

Again alot there to read and didn't get through it all.  Once their is the possibility of straights and flushes I am happy to check it out.  Your strategy of taking the pot early was fine except after it was not possible, you need to consider you are beat and check it out/fold to all in bets 

Check out to the river and see what happens, if they bet on the river they probably have a hand and I am probably throwing a set if there is a one card flush on the board.  Especially when they have called your out of position continuation bets or checked called you if your in position.  It is sign of a slow play and when its not I am happy to lose some money to a well run bluff from someone in postion because they will give that back later when they find you have the best hand after all or they will give it back to your well run bluff.

Tight play in SNG's is an absolute must and if a better hand is possible I am happy to check it down and keep the pot small.  Once your chips are gone they do not come back in a SNG.

Mind you I still find myself doing exactly what you did and calling anyway sometimes.  Trying to do it less if I can.

 
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Jambine
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« Reply #2 on: Jan 30, 2008 at 22:45 »

Seems like you're making this too complicated.

Playing limit I would check-raise.  No limt, raise enough to make the draw fold, or pay more than the draw is worth. 

Of course you are not always in position to do those things, but basically you need to "pump it or dump it".
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luckystraights
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« Reply #3 on: Jan 30, 2008 at 23:18 »

Sounds like I should have took more time to make my decision on the turn, and either pushed all-in there, knowing if I'm beat, I've still gout outs, or trying to get to showdown as cheaply as possible by checking down the turn, then getting out if I face a push on a scare card on the river.

Thanks
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Jambine
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« Reply #4 on: Jan 30, 2008 at 23:43 »

Your best chance to win was on the flop.  Way too late on the turn
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luckystraights
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« Reply #5 on: Jan 30, 2008 at 23:53 »

Your best chance to win was on the flop.  Way too late on the turn

I remember thinking at the time, my flop bet felt weak for the situation, but I don't often over bet the pot. This was probably one of those situations where I should have done so. In this instance what do you think would be a more meaningful bet on the flop? I would guess that between 320 and 400 should get any drawing hands to fold.

Thanks
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Jambine
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« Reply #6 on: Jan 31, 2008 at 00:04 »

If they had an outside straight draw on the flop, they would need to be getting 5:1 to make a call right (anything less would be a mistake to call).  That said, they might also want to gamble a bit, so I would bet enough to give them more like 3:1 or even 2:1 if they play really loose.

The point is to make them pay more than the hand is worth.
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hockeygoon
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« Reply #7 on: Jan 31, 2008 at 01:48 »

1) On the flop, a flush draw with a straight draw is basically coin flip.  If they also have 2 over cards, they're a 67% favorite.  Bottom set is a scary hand here.  Pot sized bet, and if they call or go over the top of you be ready to lay it down.

2) Never be worried about limping with a small pair as long as you have the discipline to get away from it.

3) Unless you've moved up to higher stakes, nobody is likely looking at pot odds anyway, and several people probably think that a draw is worth chasing no matter how big you bet.

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Martini
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« Reply #8 on: Jan 31, 2008 at 01:56 »

Calling off half your stack with a board holding four of a suit and none of that suit in your hand? Don't like that at all.

You made a significant re-raise on the flop. Someone is calling and a third Heart comes. At this point I'm going to try to boat up if I am getting reasonable pot/implied odds. Otherwise I'm done with this hand. With a possible straight and a possible flush out there I'm just going to have to find a better spot.
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demon604
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« Reply #9 on: Jan 31, 2008 at 11:49 »

Calling off half your stack with a board holding four of a suit and none of that suit in your hand? Don't like that at all.

You made a significant re-raise on the flop. Someone is calling and a third Heart comes. At this point I'm going to try to boat up if I am getting reasonable pot/implied odds. Otherwise I'm done with this hand. With a possible straight and a possible flush out there I'm just going to have to find a better spot.

Concur.
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Detroitdad
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« Reply #10 on: Jan 31, 2008 at 12:03 »

You should have just pushed all in pre-flop   Wink
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hachkc
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« Reply #11 on: Jan 31, 2008 at 12:55 »

First off, rarely do folks bluff at a 4 to a flush board; too many possibilities for folks.  Basically, you are either a nut job or have a really good read on someone to try a bluff like this.

As for original question, the answer varies a bit depending on cash vs tourney play.  In cash, I'm more willing to get it all-in as soon as I can.  I'm not saying pushing all-in on the flop but I'm gonna make you pay to make your hand and if you get lucky, I just reload.  In a tourney, there are a lot more factors in play such as stack sizes, player type, tourney position (ITM payouts, position to the bubble, etc) and similar concerns.  If I know someone will chase a draw regardless of odds and has me covered by a good clip or is short enough to make me commit a significant number of chips by pushing, I may be a bit more cautious.  Now this doesn't mean you simply check the flop or something but I wanna make sure I can get away from this hand with a playable stack if I need to.  Also, the turn is a much better place to push then the flop.  The one extra card seems like magic to some folks.
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