18 outs

[plesner]

Played my regular Wednesday $10 B&M tourney earlier this night. At one point, someone who was fairly shortstacked (about 13xBB) decided to go all in preflop from early position. The next player, whom I (until then at least) consider a fairly competent player, thought for a long time. Just before actually calling, he said: 'I have 18 outs, I have to call.'

I thought '18 outs - preflop?? How do you work that out'. When they showed their cards, the first guy had KTo and the one with the 18 outs had As4s. He caught a 4 on the turn and won the pot.

I asked him how he'd figured out that he had 18 outs and he replied: 'I had both flush and straight possibilities.' I decided not to ask anymore (don't tap the aquarium), but I was thoroughly baffled.

Ended up splitting 1st and 2nd for a nice $115.

[Jambine]

.....I asked him how he'd figured out that he had 18 outs and he replied: 'I had both flush and straight possibilities.' I decided not to ask anymore (don't tap the aquarium), but I was thoroughly baffled.....

LOL.  Don't worry about it.  You did the right thing by not upsetting the fish

[Martini]

You should tell him to remember that he had Full House and Quad draws too.

[Jambine]

Yes, I forgot about the quad draw.  With 9-5os, I have 6 outs to quads !

[austin5string]

Dang - why did anyone even fold on the hand?  They all had draws to every possible hand if they just played the board.  What is that, like 50 outs?

[hockeygoon]

Don't forget about he draws to a pair or 2 pairs.  I ALWAYS play those.

[Midnight Rose]

I thought '18 outs - preflop?? How do you work that out'. When they showed their cards, the first guy had KTo and the one with the 18 outs had As4s. He caught a 4 on the turn and won the pot.

I asked him how he'd figured out that he had 18 outs and he replied: 'I had both flush and straight possibilities.' I decided not to ask anymore (don't tap the aquarium), but I was thoroughly baffled.

That made my brane hurt.

[LabRat]

Think of all the outs he has before the cards are even dealt.

[Wedge Rock]

Applying DD math, he was 50/50...

[plesner]

It actually just occured to me that if you extend the rule of two and four - meaning that with 1 card to come, you multiply the number of outs with 2 and with 2 cards to come you multiply it by 4 to get the percentage you have of winning. With 5 cards to come, you then - by the same logic - have to multiply the number of outs with 10. This again means that with his 18 outs, he had 180 % chance of winning. No wonder KTo didn't stand a chance.

Now, if I can only find a way of figuring out when exactly I have 10 outs preflop (giving me 100 % chance of winning) I'll make a fortune playing this game.

[Midnight Rose]

Think of all the outs he has before the cards are even dealt.

I wonder how many outs he could cipher if they use two decks.

[Eralis]

the first guy had KTo and the one with the 18 outs had As4s. He caught a 4 on the turn and won the pot.

The guy was ahead the whole time with A high, the 4 had nothing to say.

Ontopic: I acctualy can't figure out a good way to explain how he could have had 18 outs preflop. Preflop is desided who have the better highcard/pocketpair.

[Detroitdad]

why would you want to explain it to him