varriances bitch or steam

[luckystraights]

Just got railed, this time in 6th by yet another set, this has been a very cruel day, like the I had last week, where all my losses where down to my opponents hitting straights, I've lost 3 games because my opponent made a trips now, twice on the river, and just now on the flop.

Anyways, I'll appreciate some feedback on my logic, to test if I was simply steaming or something on this final hand.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1783009

I find AQ in the hole and theres a standard raise in front. I've noted this player do similar moves with weaker hands then AQ and have seen him showdown AJ after such a raise. I have more then ten big blinds, but not many more and its close to another blind increase.

I know I could be behind a pair, or AK, but feel I'm more likely up against two face cards like KJ, KQ, or at best AJ.

If I'm behind a pair, with the blinds close to going  up and being so short staked, even with the action still being 6 handed I judge its worth the race, but I don't want to give him an easy decision if all he's holding is KQs or KJ, so I go all-in, hoping he'll fold and I'll take the pot.

Unfortunately the player behind me had the same idea and goes all-in with kings, flops and set and I'm on the rail. I don't mind the loss, although its a little annoying to loose to yet another set, but I'm wondering if you think it was okay to shove in this spot, if the blinds where only 25/50 may have actually folded and waited for a better spot, rather then risk calling or re-raising when I could be behind AK, but  in this position folding didn't seem like an option.

 EDIT : Forgot to mention, in the chat after the hand the original raiser said he held AJ and was glad he folded.

[maryfield]

Your read on the original raiser was proved correct, but do you think he would have called for half his stack with AJ or anything else that you were ahead of? It seems like you put yourself in a position that you'd only get called if you're beat. You have position, you have a raiser who you suspect to be light, you could flat call there and then plan to raise a c-bet to take down the pot.

It's unlucky that the BB woke up with KK but I don't know that you had to go broke on the hand. If you call and he then re-raises out of the blind that's pretty strong and you can still fold.

BTW, you didn't lose to a set, you lost to the hand that was always ahead.

[luckystraights]

Your read on the original raiser was proved correct, but do you think he would have called for half his stack with AJ or anything else that you were ahead of? It seems like you put yourself in a position that you'd only get called if you're beat. You have position, you have a raiser who you suspect to be light, you could flat call there and then plan to raise a c-bet to take down the pot.

I would have been happy if the pre-flop raiser would have folded, and I had picked up the pot right there, without the risk of seeing a flop. The dead money would have allowed me to be more selective as the blinds increased again which would have otherwise put me under the 10 big blinds threshold.

I was willing to risk the raiser calling with AK or a pocket pair, as I didn't put him on a pair above ten's at best and reasoned that in my chip position a race was worth it, but by going all-in I gave myself the best chance I could to win the dead money which was my main aim at that point.

I was the SB, I would have  been first to act and unless an ace came on the flop I would still be in a dangerous position, assuming of course the player behind also called the initial raise. Without an ace I would have to check, and with two people in the hand, I would again be put to a fold or push decision only with fewer chips to do it, and greater pot odds offered to my opponents. I would have probably folded without flopping an ace here, which would leave me with only 10 BB's facing a blind increase which would have severely limited my play, which is why I pushed to tray and pick up the pot pre-flop.

It's unlucky that the BB woke up with KK but I don't know that you had to go broke on the hand. If you call and he then re-raises out of the blind that's pretty strong and you can still fold.

agreed, but as discussed above I didn't see flat calling as an option. With more chips I likely would have simply called, not wanting to risk going broke with only AQ out of position and would have had an easy laydown to a re-raise from the BB.

BTW, you didn't lose to a set, you lost to the hand that was always ahead.

I know I was behind on the outset, that was never in dispute, but my opponent hitting a set, when a similar thing lead to me busting out in my previous two games increased the pain, and for release of frustration if nothing else was worth mentioning :p

Thanks for the feedback, I appreciate all the advise to try and improve my decisions next time I'm in a similar position.

[hockeygoon]

You've gotta let it go when you get outdrawn.  Look at the situation and see if you made a mistake.  If you did, learn from it and move on.  If you played it right, make a note about your opponent's mistake and move on.  If you're steaming because you lost 3 times to a set, especially you had AQ vs. KK on the last one, you're going to be in trouble.

Just remember that you're going to get trapped and outplayed some hands, and some hands you're going to get out drawn.  In the long run it evens out for a decent player, so you're only down short term.

Were the other times you lost race situations, or did you have a better pair pre-flop?  If they were races, slow down a little and don't push all in as often with a big A.  If you had the better pair, then that's just poker.  You'll win a few hands that you probably shouldn't to make up for it down the road.